The fortunes of the Columbus Blue Jackets in the 2024 NHL Draft will soon be decided.
The league announced that the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery will take place Tuesday, May 7th and air on ESPN. A time has not yet been determined as it depends on the progression of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
For the Blue Jackets, it's another chance to win a draft lottery that has eluded them for the existence of the franchise. Columbus has made the first overall selection just one time — trading with the Florida Panthers to get into the top spot to select Rick Nash in 2002.
They've only been in the best position to win the lottery one time. That was in 2012, when the Edmonton Oilers jumped Columbus to get the number one pick, which they used on Nail Yakupov. With the second overall pick, the Blue Jackets took defenseman Ryan Murray.
But pain and disappointment have still plagued the Blue Jackets several times over the last number of years. None more damning, though, than the results just one year ago. With the second-best odds of getting the top pick and thus Connor Bedard, Columbus (and Anaheim, who had the best odds to pick number one) was usurped by the Chicago Blackhawks. Columbus was awarded the third selection and took Adam Fantilli. Make no mistake about it: Fantilli was a more-than-strong consolation prize and potential top overall pick most other years — but he not the needle-moving boost that the franchise was hoping for.
This draft lottery, the Blue Jackets have the fourth-best odds to win the top pick. That comes out to a 9.5% chance, trailing only the San Jose Sharks (25.5%), Blackhawks (13.5%), and Ducks (11.5%).
They also have a 9.5% chance of moving up from four to two, with the odds there a little closer together: the Sharks have an 18.8% of picking second, with the Blackhawks at 14.1% and Ducks at 11.2%.
Just behind the Blue Jackets in both cases are the Montreal Canadiens and the Utah franchise, formerly known as the Arizona Coyotes. The Canadiens have an 8.5% chance of selecting one and 8.6% of selecting two, while the Utah franchise will have odds of 7.5% and 7.7%, respectively.
Because of the fact that there are two separate lotteries (one for the first pick and one for the second), and because math is a wild beast, the Blue Jackets are statistically most likely to pick 5th. They have a 44.6% chance of doing so. In fact, Columbus mathematically has a better chance of dropping to sixth (20.8%) than picking fourth (15.4%).
Here is a full breakdown of the odds per Tankathon:
Table per Tankathon
There is no Bedard up for grabs this draft, but projected top pick Macklin Celebrini is an electric player who will make an immediate impact on an NHL roster. The 17-year-old (he turns 18 in June) Boston University freshman had 32 goals and 32 assists in 38 games and won the Hobey Baker Award as the top player in men's college hockey. Fantilli won the award last year, also as a freshman.
